Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr.(Smt.) Susmitha Joseph

Designation

: Scientist F

Phone

: +91-(0)20-25904521

Fax

: +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID

: susmitha[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Monsoon Variability and Predictability, S2S Prediction, Prediction of Extreme Weather Events

Academic Records

Degree	University	Year	Stream
Ph.D.	Pune University, Maharashtra	2011	Atmospheric and Space Science
M.Sc.	Cochin University of Science and Technology, Kerala	2003	Meteorology
B.Sc.	Mahatma Gandhi University, Kerala	2001	Physics, Chemistry, Mathematics

Research

Mechanism for monsoon-breaks and droughts

Role of ENSO in modulating monsoon intraseasonal variability

Role of SST bias in the simulation of Indian summer monsoon variability

Extended Range prediction of active/break spells of Indian summer monsoon using statistical and dynamical approaches

Extended Range Prediction of extreme weather events like heavy rainfall events, heat/cold waves, cyclogenesis etc

Awards & Honors

Award Name	Awarded By	Awarded For	Year
Associate Fellow	Indian Meteorological Society	Exceptional contributions to Meteorology and allied fields of science and technology	2024
30th Biennial MAUSAM Award	MAUSAM Journal	Best Research Paper	2019
Best Student Paper Award	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune	Best Research Paper	2009
CSIR-JRF(NET) in CSIR scheme	Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), India	Eligibility for Research Fellowship and Lectureship	2003

Scientific Careers

Year	Designation	Institute
2023-Present	Scientist F	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2018-2022	Scientist E	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2014-2017	Scientist D	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2009-2013	Scientist C	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
2004-2009	CSIR Research Fellow	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

Professional Profile page links:

ORCID:[ https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4756-9854 ]
Google Scholar: [ https://scholar.google.co.in/citations?user=2o-r6H0AAAAJ&hl=en ]
ResearchGate: [https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Susmitha-Joseph ]

Scientific Achievements:

Member, NWP Working Group, MoES
Permanent Invitee, Monsoon Mission - Phase III, Scientific Review and Montoring Committee, Ministry of Earth Sciences
Deputy Project Director, Extended Range Prediction Group, Monsoon Mission.
Regional Activity Leader, WWRP/WCRP S2S Project, for managing the wiki pages for South Asia to help promote S2S work in the region.
Editorial Board Member, Vayumandal, the flagship journal of the Indian Meteorological Society (IMS).
Project Lead from the Indian side for the work package activity 2.1 entitled "Coupled model evaluations and inter-comparisons" under the Indo-UK collaborative effort WCSSP.
Officer-In-Charge, International Monsoon Project Office (IMPO).
Point of contact from IMPO to support the activities of the Working Group on Asian- Australian Monsoon (WG-AAM) of CLIVAR/GEWEX Monsoon Panel.
Nominated by the Royal Society to participate as an early career scientist in the Commonwealth Science Conference Caribbean Feeder Meeting, which was to be held in Kingston, Jamaica, during 16 – 18 March 2020 and later got cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic.
Invited to serve as the Session Co-ordinator for session 25S2A on "Regional Monsoons" in the Seventh International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-7) jointly organised by WCRP/WWRP, WMO, IMD, IITM, IMPO and IMS during 22-26 March 2022.
Reviewed the abstracts for the Annual Monsoon E-Workshop (AMW 2021) and National E- Symposium on "Changing climate and extreme events: impacts, mitigation & Role of oceans" organised during 21 – 23 February 2022 by the Indian Meteorological Society, Pune Chapter (IMSP)
Awarded Ph. D. Guideship by Savitribai Phule Pune University.
Served as a panellist in the WCRP Southern Asia Climate Research Forum on 30 November 2021 as part of IMPO activity.
Invited as a Member, Scientific Programme Committee, TROPMET-2022, a National Symposium on “Advances in weather and climate prediction and climate change projection over South Asia: Applications in water and agriculture sectors” to be held from 29 November to 2 December 2022 at IISER Bhopal.
Invited to review the draft report of "Mega Science Vision 2035: Climate Research" initiated by the Office of the Principal Scientific Adviser (PSA) to the Government of India (GoI) for carrying out the next National Vision Exercise for Mega Science Programme till the year 2035.
Invited to co-chair the session on Climate Services at the International Climate Research Conclave (ICRC 2023) at IIT Bombay during 26-27 May 2023.
Invited to chair the session on “Predictability and Processes: Precipitation and Tropical Waves” in the S2S Summit 2023 held at University of Reading, UK, during 03-07 July 2023.
Invited to serve as a resource person for Capacity Building Sessions to Medical Officers of Primary Health Centres, Health Inspecting Officers and ASHA Facilitators, organized by the State Programme Division of Climate Change & Human Health (CCHH), Govt. of Karnataka, in co-ordination and support from UNICEF and ARTPARK, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru at Arogya Soudha, Bengaluru on 20 Nov 2023.
Invited to contribute as a guide in the Science Education activities jointly conducted by the three national Science Academies of the country (Indian Academy of Sciences, Bengaluru; Indian National Science Academy, New Delhi; and The National Academy of Sciences, India, Prayagraj).
Played a lead role in the organization of the following conferences/workshops/webinars:

1. The virtual International Conference on the Future Directions of Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction over South Asia during 29-31 March 2021 at IITM, Pune. This conference was jointly organised with WWRP/WCRP as a regional activity of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) project of WMO.

2. The one-day webinar on "S2S forecast and its applications in South Asia" on 28 July 2021 co-organised by the WMO S2S Working Group, the International CLIVAR Monsoon Project Office (ICMPO, now IMPO) and IITM. This webinar was a part of the monthly webinar series arranged by the WMO S2S Prediction Project.

3. WCRP Southern Asia Climate Research Forum on 30 November 2021.

4. online training workshop on sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of monsoons held from 01-12 November 2021.

5. IMPO Launch event on 28 February 2022.

6. Seventh International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-7) held online from 22-26 March 2022.

7. Stakeholder Engagement Workshop on Subseasonal Prediction workshop in association with IMD at IITM on 30 Jan 2023.

Membership in Professional Organizations:

Lifetime Member, India Meteorological Society
Member, American Geophysical Union, 2008
Member, European Geosciences Union, 2024

Served as reviewer for the journals:

Climate Dynamics
Journal of Climate
Journal of Earth Syst. Science
Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Journal of Geophysical Research
International Journal of Climatology
Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society
Global and Planetary Change
Mausam
Pure and Applied Geophysics
Meteorological Applications
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Geomorphology

Papers Published in Peer reviewed Journals

2026

69. A Chaudhary, R Chattopadhyay, M Kalshetti and Joseph S, Arctic amplification and modal variability of the Hadley cell on interannual timescales, Environmental Research: Climate, accepted Jan 2026

68. Joseph S, Sahai AK, Avijit Dey, Raju Mandal, Phani MKR, Manpreet Kaur, Saranya Ganesh S, Mahesh Kalshetti, Rajib Chattopadhyay, and Abhilash S, Subseasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Variability and Extreme Weather Events, Book chapter in “Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction: The Gap Between Weather and Seasonal Climate Forecasting (2nd Edition)” , Edited by Andrew W. Robertson and Frédéric Vitart, Published by Elsevier, ISBN: 978-0-443-31538-1, DOI: 10.1016/C2023-0-52561-3

2025

67. Katru N., Joseph S., Sripathi G., Raju A.D., Mohapatra M., Suneetha P., Kumar S.V.J., Kant S., and S.H. B. (2025) Key factors behind super cyclone Gonu (1-7 June 2007) over the Arabian Sea, Mausam, 76(4), October 2025, DOI:10.54302/mausam.v76i4.7095, 1035–1046

66. Shubham Waje, Susmitha Joseph, MKR Phani, AK Sahai, Avijit Dey, Raju Mandal, Role of Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in modulating subseasonal to seasonal variability of Indian Summer Monsoon, Climate Dynamics (2025) 63:248, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07738-0

65. Avijit Dey, Mahesh P. Kalshetti, Susmitha Joseph, R. Mandal, M. Kaur, R. Phani, S. Waje, A. K. Sahai, Real-time subseasonal prediction of Indian monsoon 2022 with emphasis on east-west rainfall asymmetry, Climate Dynamics, (2025) 63:232, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07700-0

64. Akinsanola A. A., C. N. Wenhaji, R. Barimalala, P-A Monerie, R. D. Dixon, A. T. Tamoffo, M. O. Adeniyi, V. Ongoma, I. Diallo, M. Gudoshava, C. M. Wainwright, R. James, K. C. Silverio, A. Faye, S. S. Nangombe, M. W. Pokam, D. A. Vondou, N. C. G. Hart, I. Pinto, M. Kilavi, S. Hagos, E. N. Rajagopal, R. K. Kolli, and S. Joseph., “Modeling of Precipitation over Africa: Progress, Challenges, and Prospects”, Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2025), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4187-6

63. Kalshetti M., Chattopadhyay R., Turner A.G., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., The Skill of Extended-Range ERPAS and GloSea5 Models in Capturing Extratropical–Tropical Interactions During the North Indian Summer Monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, Online, March 2025, DOI:10.1002/joc.8834, 1-20

62. Mandal R., Joseph S., Waje S., Chaudhary A., Dey Avijit, Kalshetti M., Sahai A.K., Heat waves in India: patterns, associations, and subseasonal prediction skill, Climate Dynamics, 63: 42, January 2025, DOI:10.1007/s00382-024-07539-x, 1-16

2024

61. Nageswararao M.M., Joseph S., Mandal Raju, Tallapragada V., Akhter J., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Phani M.K.R., Sahai A.K., The role of antecedent southwest summer monsoon rainfall on the occurrence of premonsoon heat waves over India in the present global warming era, Discover Environment, 2: 127, November 2024, DOI:10.1007/s44274-024-00166-7, 1-25

60. Gautam P., Chattopadhyay R., Martin G., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Intraseasonal oscillation of land surface moisture and its role in the maintenance of CTCZ during the active phases of the Indian summer monsoon., Climate Dynamics, Online, March 2024, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-07070-5, 1-17

2023

59. Pratibha Gautam, R Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph , Gill M. Martin, A.K.Sahai, Coupled Model Biases and Extended Range Prediction Skill during the Onset Phase of the Indian Summer Monsoon with Different Initializations Related to Land Surface and number of Observations, QJRMS (April 2023), DOI: [ https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4475 ]

58. Kaur M., Joseph S ., Phani M.K.R., Sahai A., Dey Avijit, Mandal R, Impact of genesis conditions on regional simulations of extreme rainfall: A convection parameterization sensitivity study, Mausam, 74, April 2023, DOI:10.54302/mausam.v74i2.5983, 467–482

57. Joseph S ., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Martin G.M., Dey Avijit, Mandal R., Phani M.K.R, Evaluation and comparison of the subseasonal prediction skill of Indian summer monsoon in IITM CFSv2 and UKMO GloSea5, Climate Dynamics, January 2023, DOI:10.1007/s00382-022-06650-1, 1-14

56. Mandal R., Joseph S. , Sahai A.K., Dey Avijit, Phani M.K.R., Pattanaik D. R., Kaur M., Karmakar N., Diagnostics and real-time extended range prediction of cold waves over India, Climate Dynamics, Online, January 2023, DOI:10.1007/s00382-023-06666-1, 1-19

55. M.M. Nageswararao, M.C. Sannan, A.K. Sahai, K.R. Baswanth Kumar, Susmitha Joseph and M. Anji Reddy, District-Level Seasonal Rainfall Characteristics over Andhra Pradesh and its Global Teleconnections in Changing Climate, Journal of Basic & Applied Sciences , 2023, 19, 1-19

2022

54. Karmakar N., Joseph S. , Sahai A.K., Kaur M., Phani R., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Northward propagation of convection over the Indian region in multiphysics multimodel ensemble, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, November 2022, DOI: 10.1002/qj.4404, 1-16

53. Kalshetti M., Chattopadhyay R., Hunt K.R., Phani M.R., Joseph S. , Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Eddy transport, wave-mean flow interaction, and Eddy forcing during the 2013 Uttarakhand extreme event in the reanalysis and S2S retrospective forecast data, International Journal of Climatology, 42, December 2022, DOI:10.1002/joc.7706, 8248-8268

52. Karmakar N., Joseph S. , Sahai A.K., Northward propagation of convection over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal: a perspective from vorticity equation, Climate Dynamics, 59, November 2022, 10.1007/s00382-022-06248-7, 2751–2767

51. Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S. , Kaur M., Mandal R., Phani R., Sahai A.K., Pattanaik D.R. , The intraseasonal fluctuation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall and its relation with monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO). , Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 148, April 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00704- 022-03970-4, 819-831

50. S. Abhilash, A.K. Sahai, R. Mandal, A. Dey, Susmitha Joseph , R. Chattopadhyay, R. Phani, G. Saranya, Accelerated Hydrological Cycle under Warming Climate and Role of Extended Range Hydro-Meteorological Prediction System, Chapter in book: Impact of Climate Change on Hydrological Cycle, Ecosystem, Fisheries and Food Security, March 2022, DOI: 10.1201/9781003299769-4, eBook ISBN 9781003299769

49. Kaur M., Sahai A.K., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S. , Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Multi-physics schema for sub-seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon, Climate Dynamics, 58, February 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00382-021-05926-2, 669–690

48. Lekshmi S., Chattopadhyay R., Kaur M., Joseph S. , Phani R., Dey Avijit, Mandal R., Sahai A.K., Role of initial error growth in the extended range prediction skill of Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO), Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147, January 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03818-3, 205–215

47. Joseph S. , Sahai A.K., Shabu H., Chattopadhyay R., Kaur Manpreet, Recent changes in the spatio-temporal characteristics of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 147, January 2022, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03830-7, 251–264

2021

46. Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Shabu H., Chattopadhyay R., Kaur Manpreet, Recent changes in the spatio-temporal characteristics of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Online, October 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03830-7, 1-14

45. Akhter J., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Nageswararao M.M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Kharif rice yield prediction over Gangetic West Bengal using IITM-IMD extended range forecast products, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 145, August 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00704-021-03679-w, 1089-1100

44. Pattanaik D.R., Mandal R., Phani R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Mohapatra M., Large-scale features associated with excess monsoon rainfall over india during 2019 and the real-time extended range forecast, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 133, August 2021, DOI:10.1007/s00703-021-00808-y, 1275-1297

43. Sahai A.K., Kaur Manpreet, Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Phani R., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Multi-Model Multi-Physics Ensemble: A Futuristic Way to Extended Range Prediction System, Frontiers in Climate, 3: 655919, May 2021, DOI:10.3389/fclim.2021.655919, 1-11

42. Kalshetti M., Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Climatological patterns of subseasonal eddy flux transfer based on the co‐spectral analysis over the Indian region and the derivation of an index of eddy transfer for operational tracking, International Journal of Climatology, 41, January 2021, DOI:10.1002/joc.6821, E1906-E1925

41. Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Manpreet Kaur, Dey A., Mandal Raju., Phani R., Chattopadhyay R., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., A review of the development and implementation of a tropical cyclone prediction system for North Indian Ocean in a multi-model ensemble framework, Mausam, 72, January 2021, 57-76

2020

40. Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Sahai S.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Phani M.K., Pattanaik D.R., MJO Prediction Skill Using IITM Extended Range Prediction System and Comparison with ECMWF S2S, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 177, October 2020, DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02487-z, 5067–5079

39. Ganesh S.S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Joseph S., Kaur M., Phani R., An improved cyclogenesis potential and storm evolution parameter for North Indian Ocean, Earth and Space Science, 7: e2020EA001209, October 2020, DOI:10.1029/2020EA001209, 1-10

38. Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Joseph S., Saha S., Awate P., Dutta S., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Phani R., Pattanaik D.R., Despande S., Development of a probabilistic early health warning system based on meteorological parameters, Scientific Reports, 10:14741, September 2020, DOI:10.1038/s41598-020-71668-6, 1-13

37. Kaur M., Krishna R.P.M., Joseph S., Dey Avijit, Mandal M., Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mukhopadhyay P., Abhilash S., Dynamical downscaling of a multimodel ensemble prediction system: Application to tropical cyclones, Atmospheric Science Letters, 21: e971, August 2020, DOI:10.1002/asl.971, 1-11

2019

36. Rao S.A., Goswami B.N., Sahai A.K., Rajagopal E.N., Mukhopadhyay P., Rajeevan M., Nayak S., Rathore L.S., Shenoi S.S.C., Ramesh K.J., Nanjundiah R.S., Ravichandran M., Mitra A.K., Pai D.S., Bhowmik S.K.R., Hazra A., Mahapatra S., Saha S.K., Chaudhari H.S., Susmitha Joseph, Pentakota S., Pokhrel S., Pillai P.A., Chattopadhay R., Deshpande M., Krishna R.P.M., Siddharth Renu, Prasad V.S., Abhilash S., Pani (2019) Monsoon Mission : A targeted activity to improve monsoon prediction across scales, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Online, September 2019, DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0330.1

35. Avijit Dey, Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Susmitha Joseph, Phani R., Abhilash S (2019) Operational tracking method for the MJO using Extended Empirical Orthogonal Functions, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 176, June 2019, DOI:10.1007/s00024-018-2066-8, 2697-2717

34. Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K., Mandal R., Muralikrishna R.P., Dey A., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Tiwari A.D., Mishra V., Evolution of operational extended range forecast system of IMD : Prospects of its applications in different sectors, Mausam, 70, April 2019, 233-264

33. Raju Mandal, Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, A. Dey, R. Chattopadhyay, and D. R. Pattanaik, Real time extended range prediction of heat waves over India, Scientific Reports, 9, 9008 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41598-019-45430-6

32. Sahai A. K., Rajib Chattopadhyay and Susmitha Joseph (2019) Extended Range Forecast, Geography and You, March 2019, 19(18): 16-21

31. Chattopadhyay R., Thomas A., Phani R., Joseph S., Sahai A.K., Study on the capability of the NCEP-CFS model in simulating the frequency and intensity of high-intensity rainfall events over Indian region in the high and low resolutions, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 5, March 2019, DOI:10.1007/s40808-018-0520-3, 85-100

30. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K., Phani M.K., Mandal R., Dey Avijit, Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S, (2019) Skill evaluation of extended range forecast of rainfall and temperature over meteorological subdivisions of India, Weather and Forecasting, February 2019, 34, 81-101, DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0055

29. Ganesh S.S., Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Susmitha Joseph, Chattopadhyay R., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R. (2019) Genesis and track prediction of pre‑monsoon cyclonic storms over North Indian Ocean in a multi‑model ensemble framework, Natural Hazards, 95, February 2019, DOI:10.1007/s11069-018-3522-6, 823-843

28. Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Ganesh S., Kaur M., Pattanaik D.R., Sahai A.K (2019) Understanding the intraseasonal variability over Indian region and development of an operational extended range prediction system, Mausam, 70, January 2019, 31-56

2018

27. Ganesh S.S., Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Susmitha Joseph, Dey A., Mandal R., Chattopadhyay R., Phani R (2018) New approach to improve the track prediction of Tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters, 45, April 2018, DOI:10.1029/2018GL077650, 1-9

26. Abhilash S., Mandal R., Dey A., Phani R., Susmitha Joseph, Chattopadhyay R., De S., Agarwal N.K., Sahai A.K., Devi S.S., Rajeevan M (2018) Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intraseasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season, Climate Dynamics, 51, January 2018, DOI:10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3, pages 3435–3446(2018)

2017

25. Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Chattopadhyay R., Abhilash S., Susmitha Joseph, Borah N., Goswami B.N., Pai D.S., Srivastava A.K. (2017) Potential predictability of wet/dry spells transitions during extreme monsoon years: optimism for dynamical extended range prediction, Natural Hazards, 88, September 2017, DOI 10.1007/s11069-017-2895-2, 853-865

24. Sahai A. K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Abhilash S. (2017) Bias‑correction and downscaling technique for operational extended range forecasts based on self organizing map, Climate Dynamics, 48, April 2017, DOI:10.1007/s00382-016-3214-4, 2437-2451

2016

23. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Rajeevan M., Mandal R., Dey A., Borah N., Phani R (2016) Extremes in June rainfall during Indian summer monsoons of 2013 and 2014: Observational Analysis and Extended range prediction, Quarterly Journal of Royal Meteorological Society, 142, April 2016, DOI:10.1002/qj.2730, 1276-1289

22. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Phani R., Abhilash S. (2016) Extended Range Prediction System and its Application, Vayu Mandal, 42, January 2016, 75-96

2015

21. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Mandal R., Dey A., Abhilash A., Krishna R.P.M., Borah N. (2015) Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2, Current Science, 109, November 2015, 1802-1813

20. Borah N., Sahai A. K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R. , Susmitha Joseph, Sharmila S., Kumar A. (2015) Assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon, International Journal of Climatology, 35, October 2015, DOI:10.1002/joc.4178, 2860-2876

19. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Mapes B.E., Rajeevan M., Kumar A. (2015) Development and evaluation of an objective criterion for the Real-Time prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon onset in a coupled model framework, Journal of Climate, 28, August 2015, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00842.1, 6234-6248 Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Susmitha Joseph, Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A (2015) Better spread-error relationship in a multimodel ensemble prediction system, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 96, August 2015, 1228-1229

18. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Susmitha Joseph, Chattopadhyay R., Sharmila S., Rajeevan M., Mapes B.E., Kumar A. (2015) Improved Spread–Error Relationship and Probabilistic Prediction from the CFS-Based Grand Ensemble Prediction System, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0200.1, 1569-1578

17. Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Susmitha Joseph, Sharmila S, Rajeevan M Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R., Borah N., Susmitha Joseph, Sharmila S, Rajeevan M. (2015) High-resolution operational monsoon forecasts: an objective assessment, Climate Dynamics, 44, June 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2210-9, 3129-3140

16. Sharmila S., Susmitha Joseph, Chattopadhyay R., Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N. (2015) Asymmetry in space-time characteristics of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations during extreme years: Role of seasonal mean states, International Journal of Climatology, 35, June 2015, DOI:10.1002/joc.4100, 1948-1963

15. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K., Sharmila S., Abhilash S., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Pillai P.A., Rajeevan M., Arun Kumar (2015) North Indian heavy rainfall event during June 2013: diagnostics and extended range prediction, Climate Dynamics, 44, May 2015, DOI:10.1007/s00382-014-2291-5, 2049-2065

14. Sharmila S., Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K., Abhilash S., Chattopadhyay R. (2015) Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models, Global and Planetary Change, 124, January 2015, DOI:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.11.004, 62–78

2014

13. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Abhilash S., Borah N., Goswami B.N. (2014) New method to compute the principal components from self-organizing maps: an application to monsoon intraseasonal oscillations, International Journal of Climatology, 34, July 2014, DOI:10.1002/joc.3885, 2925–2939

12. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N. (2014) Does bias correction in the forecasted SST improve the extended range prediction skill of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall?, Atmospheric Science Letters, 15, June 2014, DOI:10.1002/asl2.477, 114–119

11. Abhilash S., Sahai A.K., Borah N., Chattopadhyay R., Susmitha Joseph, Sharmila S., De S., Goswami B.N., Arun Kumar (2014) Prediction and monitoring of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations over Indian monsoon region in an ensemble prediction system using CFSv2, Climate Dynamics, 42, May 2014, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-2045-9, 2801-2815

2013

10. Sharmila S., P. A. Pillai, Susmitha Joseph, M. Roxy, R. P. M. Krishna, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, A. K. Sahai and B. N. Goswami (2013) Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction on Northward Propagation of Indian Summer Monsoon Intra-Seasonal Oscillations (MISO), Climate Dynamics, September 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1854-1, 41, 1651–1669

9. Borah N., A. K. Sahai, R. Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, S. Abhilash and B. N. Goswami (2013) A self-organizing map– based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 118, August 2013, DOI:10.1002/jgrd.50688, 1-13

8. Chattopadhyay R., S. Sur, Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai (2013)Diabatic heating profiles over the continental convergence zone during the monsoon active spells, Climate Dynamics, 41, July 2013, DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1739-3, 205-226

7. Sahai A. K., S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, R. Chattopadhyay, N. Borah, R. P. M. Krishna, Susmitha Joseph, M. Roxy, S. De, S. Pattnaik and P. A. Pillai (2013) Simulation and Extended range prediction of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework, Current Science, 25 May 2013

2012

6. Manoj M.G., P.C.S.Devara, Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai (2012) Aerosol indirect effect during the aberrant Indian summer monsoon breaks of 2009, Atmospheric Environment, 60, December 2012, DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.06.007, 153-163

5. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K., Goswami B.N. Terray P., Masson S., Luo J.-J. (2012)Possible role of warm SST bias in the simulation of boreal summer monsoon in SINTEX-F2 coupled model, Climate Dynamics, 38, April 2012, DOI 10.1007/s00382-011-1264-1, 1561-1576

2007-2011

4. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A. K., Chattopadhyay R. and Goswami B. N. (2011) Can El-Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events modulate intraseasonal oscillations of Indian summer monsoon?, J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), doi:10.1029/2010JD015510

3. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K. and Goswami B. N. (2010) Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models, Climate Dynamics, 35, 651-667

2. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A. K. and Goswami B. N. (2009) Eastward propagating MJO during boreal summer and Indian monsoon droughts, Climate Dynamics, 32, 1139-1153

1. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., Shinde M. A., Susmitha Joseph and Chattopadhyay R (2007) Simulated changes in active/break spells during Indian summer monsoon due to enhanced CO2 concentrations: Assessment from selected Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean global climate model, International Journal of Climatology, DOI: 10.1002/joc.1440

Papers Published in Proceedings/Books/Reports etc

17. A.K. Sahai, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Susmitha Joseph, Phani M Krishna, D. R. Pattnaik, S Abhilash, Seamless prediction of monsoon onset and active/break phases, Chapter in the book The Gap Between Weather and Climate Forecasting edited by Andrew Robertson and Frederic Vitart, Available at: https://www.elsevier.com/books/sub-seasonal-to-seasonal-prediction/robertson/978-0-12-811714-9

16. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, A. Dey, R. Mandal and Aparnna Ravi P (2018) On the dynamics of the extended breaks during 2017 monsoon, IITM Research Report, June 2018, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/05(2018)/194, ISSN 0252‐1075

15. Susmitha Joseph, R. Mandal, A. K. Sahai, R. Phani, A. Dey and R. Chattopadhyay (2018) Diagnostics and Real-Time Extended Range Prediction of Heat Waves over India, IITM Report, March 2018, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/03(2018)/192, ISSN 0252‐1075

14. Chattopadhyay Rajib,R. Phani M.K., Susmitha Joseph, Dey Avijit, Mandal Raju, Sahai A.K (2018) A Comparison of Extended-Range Prediction of Monsoon in the IITM-CFSv2 with ECMWF S2S Forecast System, IITM Research Report, RR-139, January 2018, ISSN 0252-1075, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2018)/190

13. Susmitha Joseph, Sahai A.K., Phani R., Mandal Raju, Dey A., Chattopadhyay Rajib (2017) Evaluation of Extended Range Forecast Skill on Subdivisional Scale over India, IITM Research Report, RR-137, May 2017, ISSN 0252-1075, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/01(2017)/188

12. D. R. Pattanaik, Raju Mandal, Avijit Dey , R. Phani, Susmitha Joseph, Rajib Chattopadhyay, Shibin Balakrishnan and A. K. Sahai (2017) Performance of real time extended range forecast during southwest monsoon 2016, IMD Met Monograph: No. : ESSO/IMD/Synoptic Met./01(2017)/21

11. Sahai A.K., Chattopadhyay Rajib, Dey Avijit, Susmitha Joseph, Abhilash S., Phani M., Mandal Raju, Rajeevan M.N. and Hendon H (2016) MJO Diagnostics for Extended Range Prediction and Simulation in IITM CFSv2, IITM Research Report, RR-136, September 2016, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/02(2016)/ 187

10. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, S. Abhilash, R. Mandal, R. Phani, R. Chattopadhyay and A. Dey (2016) Extended Range Prediction of heavy rainfall events, Bulletin of the Indian Meteorological Society, Pune Chapter, Vol. 17, February 2016, pp. xvi , Issue on IMSP Annual Monsoon Workshop-2015 & National Symposium on Understanding and Forecasting the Monsoon Extremes, IITM , Pune, 23-24 February 2016

9. Abhilash S., Raju M., Avijit D., R. Phani, Susmitha Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, A. K. Sahai and M. Rajeevan (2015) Performance of the Extended Range Prediction System During 2015 Monsoon Season, Chapter 5 in A Research Report on the 2015 Southwest Monsoon, edited by Milind Mujumdar, C. Gnanaseelan and M. Rajeevan, IITM Research Report, November 2015, ISSN 0252-1075, ESSO/IITM/SR/02(2015)/185.

8. Susmitha Joseph, A.K. Sahai, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Abhilash, M. Rajeevan (2014) Contrasting Progression Phase of Indian Summer Monsoon During June 2013 and 2014: Observational Diagnostics, IITM Research Report, RR-132, September 2014, ISSN 0252-1075, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/04(2014)/183

7. Susmitha Joseph, A. K. Sahai, S. Sharmila, S. Abhilash, N. Borah, P. A. Pillai, R. Chattopadhyay and Arun Kumar (2013) Extended Range Prediction of Uttarakhand Heavy Rainfall Event by an Ensemble Prediction System based on CFSv2, IITM Research Report, RR-131, November 2013, ISSN 0252-1075, ESSO/IITM/SERP/SR/03(2013)/180

6. N. Borah, S. Abhilash, Susmitha Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Sharmila and A.K. Sahai (2013) Development of Extended Range Prediction System Using CFSv2 and Its verification, IITM Research Report, RR-130, July 2013, ISSN 0252-1075

5. Abhilash S., Susmitha Joseph, R. Chattopadhyay, S. Pattnaik, P. Murali Krishna, S. Dey, A.K. Sahai, B.N. Goswami (2012) Performance of an ensemble prediction system based on CFSV2 for the extended range prediction of active-break spells of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 2011, IITM Research Report, RR-128, December 2012

4. Sahai, A. K., S. Abhilash, S. Patnaik, Susmitha Joseph and Borah N. (2011) Extended Range Prediction of Active and Break Spells- 2011, Leeward News, Vol XV(No.4), pp.15-21

3. Sahai, A. K., Mandke, S. K., Shinde, M. A., Chattopadhyay, R., Susmitha Joseph and Goswami, B. N. (2007) Experimental seasonal forecast of Indian summer monsoon 2007: statistical and dynamical models, IITM Research Report, No. RR- 120.

2. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., Shinde M. A., Susmitha Joseph and Chattopadhyay R. (2006) Coupled multi-model response of active and break phases of Indian summer monsoon to enhanced CO₂ effect, IITM Research Report, No. RR- 112

1. Mandke S. K., Sahai A. K., Shinde M. A. and Susmitha Joseph (2006) Global warming and mean Indian summer monsoon,Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE) report, March 2006

Doctoral Degree:

8. Mr Ajith Baby, Western Disturbances over India: Variability and Subseasonal Prediction, Ongoing (Co-Guide).

7. Ms Tanvi Desai, Development of an Indian Ocean Carbon Cycle Forecasting System at Subseasonal Time Scales and Understanding its Variability, Ongoing (Co-Guide).

6. Mr Anurag Chaudhary, Arctic Amplification and its impact on the dynamics and thermodynamics of large-scale meridional circulation, Ongoing (Co-Guide).

5. Mr Shubham Waje, Subseasonal prediction of Stratosphere-Troposphere interaction with Indian Summer Monsoon, Ongoing (Guide)

4. Ms Pratibha Gautam, Understanding the Role of Land Surface Processes in the Prediction of Monsoon Low-Frequency Variability, May 2025 (Co-Guide).

3. Mr Raju Mandal, Development of Extended Range Prediction Strategy of extreme temperature events over Indian region for societal benefits, June 2023 (Guide).

2. Ms Manpreet Kaur, Development of a Forecasting framework for improved extended range prediction of extreme events, March 2022 (Guide).

1. Ms Saranya Ganesh S, Prediction of Genesis, Track and Intensity of North Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones in a Multi-Model Framework, July 2020 (Co-Guide).

Masters Degree:

3. Mr Athul S, Cochin University of Science and Technology (Project in Atmospheric Science), M.Tech. 2025

2. Ms Hindhiya Shabu, Cochin University of Science and Technology (Project in Atmospheric Science), M.Sc., 2020

1. Ms Aparnna Ravi P, Cochin University of Science and Technology (Project in Atmospheric Science), M.Sc., 2018

आईआईटीएम
IITM

भारतीय उष्णदेशीय मौसम विज्ञान संस्थान
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology

Scientist Profile

Dr.(Smt.) Susmitha Joseph

Designation

: Scientist F

Phone

: +91-(0)20-25904521

Fax

: +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID

: susmitha[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

Scientific Careers

Papers Published in Peer reviewed Journals

Papers Published in Proceedings/Books/Reports etc

Scientist Profile

Dr.(Smt.) Susmitha Joseph

Designation : Scientist F

Phone : +91-(0)20-25904521

Fax : +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID : susmitha[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in

Area of Expertise

Academic Records

Research

Awards & Honors

Scientific Careers

Papers Published in Peer reviewed Journals

Papers Published in Proceedings/Books/Reports etc

Designation

: Scientist F

Phone

: +91-(0)20-25904521

Fax

: +91-(0)20-25865142

Email ID

: susmitha[at]tropmet[dot]res[dot]in